Would also be interesting to look at sideout percentage... maybe the effect is not more serve-mistakes, but deliberately reduced risk at serve, that might lead to higher SO%.
Yea that's a good point. In the future I will take a look at this data. However, for simplicity, wanted to share these breakdowns first as I had this theory myself.
I think the thing you want to look at is the results of the previous few points prior to the time out. You hinted at it, but teams call time outs to stop the momentum of their opponents. Of course later in the set, points have higher leverage. They also tend to avoid calling time outs near the technical time out and side changes. I’ll bet if you consider these factors you could create a model such that time outs are very predictable.
Would also be interesting to look at sideout percentage... maybe the effect is not more serve-mistakes, but deliberately reduced risk at serve, that might lead to higher SO%.
Yea that's a good point. In the future I will take a look at this data. However, for simplicity, wanted to share these breakdowns first as I had this theory myself.
I think the thing you want to look at is the results of the previous few points prior to the time out. You hinted at it, but teams call time outs to stop the momentum of their opponents. Of course later in the set, points have higher leverage. They also tend to avoid calling time outs near the technical time out and side changes. I’ll bet if you consider these factors you could create a model such that time outs are very predictable.